Trading 2007

Well we have one more week of possible trading activity although I don't expect too much movement this last week. It did make me ponder though the trade activity of this season as I thought it was more active than general.

Nine of twelve owners made trades this season which I thought was the most we'd seen during any season I'd been involved in the league. In trying to determine why, I first looked at who the three non-traders of 2007 were. The first two did not surprise me... the Wythes Guys and the Wright Edition. But the third did... the Lou Evil Sluggers. The Sluggers are due for a tweaking.

But I went back and did some more homework and realized that we've been more active in seasons past. In 2001 and 2004, we had 10 of 12 owners trading (Prowlers and Slackers abstained in 2001 while Del Lords and Wythes Guys abstained in 2004). But more alarming was the number of trades per season since 2000:

2000 - 4
2001 - 14
2002 - 13
2003 - 14
2004 - 22
2005 - 6
2006 - 7
2007 - 9

So I guess my sense of the trading activity was my short term memory kicking in... increasing the past two seasons but still no where near where it was between 2001 and 2004.

Here are the most active trading franchises since 2000:

Jim Shorts - 33
Tarantulas - 29
Slackers - 21
Doggy Dogs - 21
Prowlers - 17
Tubagoos - 14
Sluggers - 12
Homers - 11
Edition - 6
Del Lords - 6
Goliaths - 4
Guys - 4 (all executed by the previous owner of the Big Fred Machine)

Besides the Wythes Guys not making a trade in six seasons, the other startling finding... before this season's Valverde/Dempster for Broxton/Stewart/Wuertz deal with the Homers, the Del Lords had not made an in season deal since 2002.

One more meaningless stat, the Del Lords are one of only two teams in the 21st century of Roblisserie two win a championship without making a single trade. Can you guess the other?

Did he submit his resume?

Off-topic, but a quick little story about the new QB coach at Mike Kraft's high school:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2987589

Another trade

Slackers trade Ty Wigginton and their 14th and 15th round picks in 2008 to the Doggy Doggs for Jose Castillo and their 2nd and 7th round picks in 2008.

Talk about minting money...the Slackers buy Wigginton for $24 from FAAB and then spin him into 2 premium draft picks and a good speculative keeper in Castillo. That's awfully good ROI, if you ask me.

Can I simply ask what the heck the Doggs are doing? This is a franchise in disarray, folks. I think Raul is still in denial that the 2007 preseason favorite Doggs are really as bad (correct that, mediocre) as they are. (For definition of "bad", see Slackers.) So here he is, making a nothing trade - for what? A chance to finish fifth. OK, I can appreciate that...after all that's the platform the Homers used this year. At least he'll have those nice draft picks in the 2nd and 7th round - oh yeah, the Slackers have them now. And Castillo could still see some meaningful action between now and end of the year. I think Doumit got hurt tonight and Castillo played RF - it'll be interesting to monitor Castillo vs. Wigginton's respective fantasy stats for their new teams.

The Doggs remind me of the Pirates. Only the Pirates can be 15 games out of first at the trading deadline and trade away Rajai Davis (who has sparkled in SF) for Matt Morris and his $9.5 million dollar contract! Are you kidding me! The Pirates have no direction or strategy. And sitting from here, I gotta wonder what the Doggs are doing...

P.S. But while I can trash the Doggs' management, I must admit that the Doggs have the Shorts' number when it comes to trades. Chad Tracy, Cesar Izturis and a draft pick (Andrew McCutchen) for Willy Taveras and Lastings Milledge. Then Derek Lowe for Jeremy Hermida. Got me on both counts...

Last Week's FAABathon

I keep seeking analysis of the trade deadline FAAB this past Friday but didn't want to necessarily post myself since I successfully secured a bulk of the talent available. But given no one else has stepped up, here it goes:

(1) David's Goliaths bid $42 for Mark Teixeira; waive Olmedo Saenz
other bids: Del Lords - $32 (Wilson Betemit), Tarantulas - $30 (Ryan Freel)

I was struck by two things... the Prowlers didn't bid and the Lords would have had him for $32 if not for the Goliaths. I guess everyone assumed a slew of $40+ bids.

(2) Slackers bid $24 for Tadahito Iguchi; waive Brendan Ryan
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Scott Speizio), TC Homers - $24 (Omar Quintanilla), David's Goliaths - $16 (Tony Graffanino), Raul's Doggy Dogs - $8 (Wes Helms), Jim Shorts - $7 (Chad Tracy)

I assumed I'd get him at $24. He's not necessarily a keeper but a very productive major leaguer who I'd think several owners would seek in trade.

(3) Slackers bid $24 for Octavio Dotel; waive Dan Wheeler
other bids: Raul's Doggy Dogs - $15 (John Grabow), TC Homers - $8 (Joe Smith)

Before his injury, I had delusions of him becoming the deadline FAAB closer like 2006 $24 pick ups Guardado, Cordero and Wickman. I still think he has a decent shot of being the 2008 closer somewhere and being effective in September.

(4) Slackers bid $24 for Ty Wigginton; waive Jared Saltalamacchia
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Mark Sweeney), Prowlers - $24 (Chris Burke), Jim Shorts - $24 (Damion Easley), Tarantulas - $12 (Ryan Langerhans), Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Chris Iannetta)

Another simple $24 bid for the Slackers, Wigginton clearly was interesting to a lot of owners. Ironically, the team that traded for him didn't even bid on him.

(5) David's Goliaths bid $16 for Luis Castillo; waive Adam Kennedy
other bids: Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Eric Bruntlett), Tarantulas - $11 (Jeff Conine)

I thought for sure the Jim Shorts would bid $24 for Castillo. Silly for him to think no one else was bidding $24 for Wigginton and passing on a productive 2B he could have certainly acquired. I look forward to his "comment" here.

(6) Jim Shorts bid $11 for Rob Mackowiak; waive Jose Cruz
other bid: Wright Edition - $6 (Hiram Bocachica)

Yahn

(7) Raul's Doggy Dogs bid $7 for Delwyn Young; waive Joe Borchard
other bids: Wright Edition - $6 (Cory Sullivan), Tubagoos - $6 (So Taguchi), Jim Shorts - $6 (Cesar Izturis)

One of my alternative strategies was going to bid for Young but I just couldn't see him cracking the Dodger outfield this year or next. Although given their offensive woes maybe he gets a shot. I told Erik prior to FAAB that Raul would most certainly be in the bidding here as he's a dodger fan... I mean a Red Sox fan... I mean a Yankee fan. Hey Raul, who do you root for anyway?

(8) Jim Shorts bid $7 for Joel Pineiro; waive Brandon Lyon

Jim was trying to talk me into Lyon's closer in waiting status last week. I guess he was trying to pull a fast one on me. Maybe I will claim him this week. Given Pineiro's bad WHIP in Seattle, I can't see him succeeding much. That said, maybe he will present a new look to NL batters. His first start (7IP no runs) suggests maybe he works in spots.

(9) Del Lords bid $5 for Bobby Livingstone; waive Kyle Davies

I scouted Livingstone a few weeks back but just couldn't bring myself to buy a starter in Cincinnati.

(10) Prowlers bid $5 for Scott Proctor; waive Oscar Villarreal
other bid: Jim Shorts - $5 (Shawn Chacon)

Here's a second attempted waiver by Jim Short marketed to me as a cheap saves long shot. And Jim wonders why I question his credibility in scouting deals between us. Proctor is a productive $5 pick up to save cap space if nothing else.

(11) Jim Shorts bid $5 for Tim Redding; waive Livan Hernandez

Livan has had his troubles but he seems at least equally spot-startable as Redding. At least Livan has pitched well in his career and has a good team behind him. Maybe Jim just grew tired of the temptation of starting Livan.

(12) Lou Evil Sluggers bid $5 for Chris Coste; waive Mike Lieberthal

Who is Chris Coste? Probably just the reason the Sluggers are successful year after year while the Slackers are has beens.

(13) Tarantulas claim Jo-Jo Reyes; waive John Van Benschoten
other claim: Lou Evil Sluggers (Paul Estrada)

I liked Jo-Jo but didn't think he was worth owning at $10 for 2008. The Tarantulas continue bargain hunting for staring pitching.

(14) Slackers claim Kevin Correia; waive Jason Hirsch
other claims: Prowlers (empty spot), Jim Shorts (Jon Lieber), David's Goliaths (Josh Hancock)

I actually like Correia as a closer for the Giants in 2008 but he needs to have a big September.

Who needs FAAB or trades?

It's amazing that the Homers have been able to lead the entire way this year (so far), and have had no major contributions from any FAAB or trade pickup, except in the Saves category (where they only have 4 points currently). Here's how their 2007 major contributors were acquired (I included the auction rounds just out of curiosity):

2004 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
none

2005 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
Juan Pierre ($34 in auction, used in Wickman trade)
Fred Lewis ($2 in reserve draft, used in Wickman trade)

2006 Auction
Prince Fielder - $22 (brought up in the 3rd round of bidding)
Bronson Arroyo - $11 (3rd)
Chris Young - $21 (4th)
Garrett Atkins - $20 (4th)
Nomar Garciaparra - $15 (4th)
Ian Snell - $4 (8th)
Corey Hart - $15 (8th)
Miguel Olivo - $2 (10th)
Dan Uggla - $5 (10th)
Shane Victorino - $3 (14th)

2006 Reserve Draft
Russell Martin
Jonathan Broxton (eventually used in Valverde/Dempster trade)

2006 FAAB/Waivers
none

2006 Trades
Bob Wickman

2007 Auction
Ben Sheets - $33 (1st)
Jason Bay - $28 (2nd)
Rafael Soriano - $12 (5th)
Ryan Theriot - $6 (9th)
Matt Diaz - $6 (12th)

2007 Reserve Draft
none

2007 FAAB/Waivers
Milton Bradley (contribution TBD)

2007 Trades
Jose Valverde (contribution TBD)
Ryan Dempster (contribution TBD)


This lays to waste the "studs and duds" rebuilding method. That was one heckuva draft last year (2006).

Maybe Chris knew what he was doing after all...

As Doug pointed out in a comment, Ian Stewart got called up....and Rotoworld yesterday reported that Dempster may not be the exclusive closer...

So Chris' eagerness/rush to do the deal before the deadline* makes sense now...

Jim is right

I wasn't pleased by my own trade. I didn't like trading at cost rather than value. But I offered Valverde and Dempster to all contenders, and got no offers other than Doug. Plus, my thinking was that Valverde has never had a full year this good, and Dempster is imploding.

I also agree with Patrick -- any trade is a good trade in our league.

Finally, I disagree that Doug is now a lock to win -- Dave could catch him if he'd ever spend on FAAB, and make a trade.

--Chris

Some momentous events...and the Trade

It's been a while since I had time to post...and several big events have finally happened...Bonds hit 756 (and 757); A-Rod hit 500; Greg got married...and the Homers made the trade they needed to make to win the league.

My assessment of the Roblisserie race was that the Homers were in the driver's seat all along - even as some teams flirted with catching them in the standings. When you looked at the standings and the Homers' position in categories, you saw lots of upside potential, especially if the Homers could pick up a closer. For a while I was worried that Jonathan Broxton would be that guy, given Saito's shoulder, and he still could be the Dodgers' closer any day...but Broxton is no longer a Homer, which brings us back to the Big One!

The Del Lords dropped their shorts and traded not only one closer, but two closers to the Homers. The official trade was as follows:

Del Lords trade Jose Valverde and Ryan Dempster

to the TC Homers for Jonathan Broxton, Ian Stewart, Michael Wuertz, and the Homers 15th round pick in 2008.

Before I get into the trade analysis (and invite you to comment), I must also point out that there is some controversy with this trade, with regard to the timing. The trade itself was executed early Monday evening (ET) and it has been announced as effective as of 8/6/07. The Slackers have formally protested the timing of this trade, citing the rules which do indicate that the transaction deadline is noon, ET. No word yet from the commissioner's office on the formal protest - my guess is that Erik stood up and put his hands in his pockets and said nothing. But I think he did issue a statement, acknowledging that despite the controversy with this trade, the fact that the Homers fleeced the Lords is notable and remarkable.

I am personally surprised that Erik bent the rules here, even if it's in the spirit of the game, since no games were happening until that evening and the fact that our website technically allows transactions up to an hour before the first game. But unlike previous rule controversies, this one is in black and white - namely the League Constitution that was produced by none other than Chris himself (actually by Chris' former assistant who probably quit the Charlotte Sports Felon firm due to bullsh*t duties assigned to her such as typing up the rules from a book on chicken roasters.)

Anyway, back to the irony of an attorney ignoring the Constitution - I guess rogue attorneys in Carolina are the norm. Anyway, I'm surprised that Erik let this one slide - in fact, I think this is the first time he and I have been on opposite viewpoints on a rules decision/interpretation - I thought we got away from loosey/goosey commish decisions once the Del Lords were dethroned.

Anyway, back to the trade. There have been several emails about this and I invite the owners to revisit the comments here on the blog - to generate some more traffic and dialogue here. All in all, it wasn't a horrible trade for the Lords despite my needling...but I think Chris could have done better.

True, the closers were funny money to Chris but to Doug, they were gold. And that's the problem I have with the deal from the Del Lords' perspective. He sold based on his cost rather than value to the customer. Also, I didn't understand the rush to do a deal by the deadline* (asterisk similar to Bonds' HR record; actually if the Homers win the title by a save or two that occurs this week, do we put an asterisk next to their name in our record books?)

As I was saying, time was on Chris' side. Doug was desperate to do a deal - so why didn't Chris use time to his advantage? I was even trying to pull together a competing offer...so Chris could have used the Toland "I'm talking to another owner" technique to extract more from Doug. (That will be another post - analyzing owners' trading styles, etc.)

The trade itself wasn't horrible, as I said. You could argue that Broxton for a closer is a fair deal and that Stewart for another closer is ok. (Although Bruce would have been a better pickup than Stewart in my mind.) But again, if you're going to hand an owner the keys to the title, make them pay for it. (Unless it's my team in a future year...)

Finally, what's with the dangling 15th round draft pick? Why did Chris care about picking up the very last pick in the draft? Or was that Doug's subtle way of putting an exclamation point on his bounty - since he isn't going to need the 15th pick anyway since he'll be protecting Jay Bruce.