So, Jim, your blog seems to be languishing. Too bad. Maybe Smoyer can rejuvenate it.
Any chance you Bay Area geeks could be in the Bonds jury pool? Do you think you could be unbiased?
Speaking of which, aren't we near the 20th anniversary of Len Bias' death?
I spent four hours on the highway today, traveling home, so I had the time for these other musings:
--At the moment, I'd vote for Ratatouille to get the Oscar for best picture.
-- I believe that the Curse of the Bambino has been reversed, and now the Yankees have the Curse of A-Rod.
-- The Charlotte Bobcats are playing good basketball, but actual attendance at the home games is less than 5,000. What's the record for the quickest demise of an expansion team?
-- Major League Soccer will not flourish until it reorganizes into a relegation/promotion structure like every other country's pro soccer league.
-- I golfed three times in the last 10 days, and you didn't. There are some advantages to drought.
--Chris
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Scenario for Homers Win
Now looking at the Homers, there are still several areas where the Homers could make up points in the standings, but time is running out...
As of 9:40 pm ET (Wed. 9/26/07), the Homers are also down 93.5-87. Of course, the Goliaths could lose points as described in the Sluggers scenario, but the Homers have enough areas to score that a winning scenario doesn't necessarily rely on the Goliaths to falter.
Homers could pass Sluggers in BA (.2753 - .2757)
Homers could pass Doggs, Lords in SB (140-143-143) - although the trends may not favor this
Homers could pass the Shorts, Sluggers, Prowlers in K (1015-1021-1025-1035) - remember the Prowlers have the least amount of starts remaining and the Homers have the most...
A key matchup is Homers vs. Slackers in ERA and WHIP; the Homers are currently down 4.022-4.019 in ERA and 1.327-1.324 in WHIP - and the Slackers still have Jamie Moyer, Chuck James, Kevin Correia and Chad Billingsley left to pitch
Finally if the Homers could tie/pass the Doggs and Guys in wins (68-70-71), then it has 2 points more of upside - leaving a total upside of 10 points gained or 97 total.
Stay tuned - this is going to be a good one...
As of 9:40 pm ET (Wed. 9/26/07), the Homers are also down 93.5-87. Of course, the Goliaths could lose points as described in the Sluggers scenario, but the Homers have enough areas to score that a winning scenario doesn't necessarily rely on the Goliaths to falter.
Homers could pass Sluggers in BA (.2753 - .2757)
Homers could pass Doggs, Lords in SB (140-143-143) - although the trends may not favor this
Homers could pass the Shorts, Sluggers, Prowlers in K (1015-1021-1025-1035) - remember the Prowlers have the least amount of starts remaining and the Homers have the most...
A key matchup is Homers vs. Slackers in ERA and WHIP; the Homers are currently down 4.022-4.019 in ERA and 1.327-1.324 in WHIP - and the Slackers still have Jamie Moyer, Chuck James, Kevin Correia and Chad Billingsley left to pitch
Finally if the Homers could tie/pass the Doggs and Guys in wins (68-70-71), then it has 2 points more of upside - leaving a total upside of 10 points gained or 97 total.
Stay tuned - this is going to be a good one...
Scenario for Sluggers Win
With 5 days left in the regular season, the Goliaths appear to be in the driver's seat, but it's far from over. I looked at a scenario where the Sluggers could overtake the Goliaths and it's not far-fetched...
Current score: Goliaths 93.5 Sluggers 87 (based on live scoring as of 9:20 pm ET, Wed. night)
If Doggs pass Goliaths in RBI's (currently 883-881), then it's 92.5-87
If Sluggers pass Prowlers in K's (currently 1035-1025), then it's 92.5-88
If Sluggers pass Homers, Slackers in ERA (currently 4.033 chasing 4.022, 4.023) then it's 92.5-90
If Prowlers break the current tie in wins with Goliaths, then it's 92-90 AND
If Sluggers can catch and pass the Goliaths in SB's (currently 131-128)...then we have a 91-91 tie and the Sluggers win the tiebreaker...(the two teams would be tied with 5 categories each and the Sluggers have about 450 more AB's while only about 12 IP less...)
And with some further analysis, the race is likely to tighten
RBI's - for the week the Doggs are up 16-8 on Goliaths...
K's - Sluggers has 6 starts left (2 on Sunday); Prowlers only have 4 starts left (3 on Sunday)
ERA - Sluggers have 6 starts (2 on Sunday); Homers have 7/2; Slackers 4/2
Wins - Prowlers 4 starts; Goliaths 5 starts
SB's - for the week, Sluggers up 4-1 on Goliaths...
Hang on folks, this could be a wild ride...and we haven't even looked at the possibilities of a Monday tiebreaker playoff game...
Current score: Goliaths 93.5 Sluggers 87 (based on live scoring as of 9:20 pm ET, Wed. night)
If Doggs pass Goliaths in RBI's (currently 883-881), then it's 92.5-87
If Sluggers pass Prowlers in K's (currently 1035-1025), then it's 92.5-88
If Sluggers pass Homers, Slackers in ERA (currently 4.033 chasing 4.022, 4.023) then it's 92.5-90
If Prowlers break the current tie in wins with Goliaths, then it's 92-90 AND
If Sluggers can catch and pass the Goliaths in SB's (currently 131-128)...then we have a 91-91 tie and the Sluggers win the tiebreaker...(the two teams would be tied with 5 categories each and the Sluggers have about 450 more AB's while only about 12 IP less...)
And with some further analysis, the race is likely to tighten
RBI's - for the week the Doggs are up 16-8 on Goliaths...
K's - Sluggers has 6 starts left (2 on Sunday); Prowlers only have 4 starts left (3 on Sunday)
ERA - Sluggers have 6 starts (2 on Sunday); Homers have 7/2; Slackers 4/2
Wins - Prowlers 4 starts; Goliaths 5 starts
SB's - for the week, Sluggers up 4-1 on Goliaths...
Hang on folks, this could be a wild ride...and we haven't even looked at the possibilities of a Monday tiebreaker playoff game...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Too bad the draft isn't in DC...
http://www.jdland.com/dc/stadium.cfm
hitters' or pitchers' park? see stadium dimensions at the bottom of the page.
hitters' or pitchers' park? see stadium dimensions at the bottom of the page.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Best Roblisserie race ever?
Two weeks to go, and it seems like every category still has some potential point gains or losses for at least one of the two leaders. The fact that the Homers could lose 7 points in the third to last week of the season is amazing.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Trading 2007
Well we have one more week of possible trading activity although I don't expect too much movement this last week. It did make me ponder though the trade activity of this season as I thought it was more active than general.
Nine of twelve owners made trades this season which I thought was the most we'd seen during any season I'd been involved in the league. In trying to determine why, I first looked at who the three non-traders of 2007 were. The first two did not surprise me... the Wythes Guys and the Wright Edition. But the third did... the Lou Evil Sluggers. The Sluggers are due for a tweaking.
But I went back and did some more homework and realized that we've been more active in seasons past. In 2001 and 2004, we had 10 of 12 owners trading (Prowlers and Slackers abstained in 2001 while Del Lords and Wythes Guys abstained in 2004). But more alarming was the number of trades per season since 2000:
2000 - 4
2001 - 14
2002 - 13
2003 - 14
2004 - 22
2005 - 6
2006 - 7
2007 - 9
So I guess my sense of the trading activity was my short term memory kicking in... increasing the past two seasons but still no where near where it was between 2001 and 2004.
Here are the most active trading franchises since 2000:
Jim Shorts - 33
Tarantulas - 29
Slackers - 21
Doggy Dogs - 21
Prowlers - 17
Tubagoos - 14
Sluggers - 12
Homers - 11
Edition - 6
Del Lords - 6
Goliaths - 4
Guys - 4 (all executed by the previous owner of the Big Fred Machine)
Besides the Wythes Guys not making a trade in six seasons, the other startling finding... before this season's Valverde/Dempster for Broxton/Stewart/Wuertz deal with the Homers, the Del Lords had not made an in season deal since 2002.
One more meaningless stat, the Del Lords are one of only two teams in the 21st century of Roblisserie two win a championship without making a single trade. Can you guess the other?
Nine of twelve owners made trades this season which I thought was the most we'd seen during any season I'd been involved in the league. In trying to determine why, I first looked at who the three non-traders of 2007 were. The first two did not surprise me... the Wythes Guys and the Wright Edition. But the third did... the Lou Evil Sluggers. The Sluggers are due for a tweaking.
But I went back and did some more homework and realized that we've been more active in seasons past. In 2001 and 2004, we had 10 of 12 owners trading (Prowlers and Slackers abstained in 2001 while Del Lords and Wythes Guys abstained in 2004). But more alarming was the number of trades per season since 2000:
2000 - 4
2001 - 14
2002 - 13
2003 - 14
2004 - 22
2005 - 6
2006 - 7
2007 - 9
So I guess my sense of the trading activity was my short term memory kicking in... increasing the past two seasons but still no where near where it was between 2001 and 2004.
Here are the most active trading franchises since 2000:
Jim Shorts - 33
Tarantulas - 29
Slackers - 21
Doggy Dogs - 21
Prowlers - 17
Tubagoos - 14
Sluggers - 12
Homers - 11
Edition - 6
Del Lords - 6
Goliaths - 4
Guys - 4 (all executed by the previous owner of the Big Fred Machine)
Besides the Wythes Guys not making a trade in six seasons, the other startling finding... before this season's Valverde/Dempster for Broxton/Stewart/Wuertz deal with the Homers, the Del Lords had not made an in season deal since 2002.
One more meaningless stat, the Del Lords are one of only two teams in the 21st century of Roblisserie two win a championship without making a single trade. Can you guess the other?
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Did he submit his resume?
Off-topic, but a quick little story about the new QB coach at Mike Kraft's high school:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2987589
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2987589
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Another trade
Slackers trade Ty Wigginton and their 14th and 15th round picks in 2008 to the Doggy Doggs for Jose Castillo and their 2nd and 7th round picks in 2008.
Talk about minting money...the Slackers buy Wigginton for $24 from FAAB and then spin him into 2 premium draft picks and a good speculative keeper in Castillo. That's awfully good ROI, if you ask me.
Can I simply ask what the heck the Doggs are doing? This is a franchise in disarray, folks. I think Raul is still in denial that the 2007 preseason favorite Doggs are really as bad (correct that, mediocre) as they are. (For definition of "bad", see Slackers.) So here he is, making a nothing trade - for what? A chance to finish fifth. OK, I can appreciate that...after all that's the platform the Homers used this year. At least he'll have those nice draft picks in the 2nd and 7th round - oh yeah, the Slackers have them now. And Castillo could still see some meaningful action between now and end of the year. I think Doumit got hurt tonight and Castillo played RF - it'll be interesting to monitor Castillo vs. Wigginton's respective fantasy stats for their new teams.
The Doggs remind me of the Pirates. Only the Pirates can be 15 games out of first at the trading deadline and trade away Rajai Davis (who has sparkled in SF) for Matt Morris and his $9.5 million dollar contract! Are you kidding me! The Pirates have no direction or strategy. And sitting from here, I gotta wonder what the Doggs are doing...
P.S. But while I can trash the Doggs' management, I must admit that the Doggs have the Shorts' number when it comes to trades. Chad Tracy, Cesar Izturis and a draft pick (Andrew McCutchen) for Willy Taveras and Lastings Milledge. Then Derek Lowe for Jeremy Hermida. Got me on both counts...
Talk about minting money...the Slackers buy Wigginton for $24 from FAAB and then spin him into 2 premium draft picks and a good speculative keeper in Castillo. That's awfully good ROI, if you ask me.
Can I simply ask what the heck the Doggs are doing? This is a franchise in disarray, folks. I think Raul is still in denial that the 2007 preseason favorite Doggs are really as bad (correct that, mediocre) as they are. (For definition of "bad", see Slackers.) So here he is, making a nothing trade - for what? A chance to finish fifth. OK, I can appreciate that...after all that's the platform the Homers used this year. At least he'll have those nice draft picks in the 2nd and 7th round - oh yeah, the Slackers have them now. And Castillo could still see some meaningful action between now and end of the year. I think Doumit got hurt tonight and Castillo played RF - it'll be interesting to monitor Castillo vs. Wigginton's respective fantasy stats for their new teams.
The Doggs remind me of the Pirates. Only the Pirates can be 15 games out of first at the trading deadline and trade away Rajai Davis (who has sparkled in SF) for Matt Morris and his $9.5 million dollar contract! Are you kidding me! The Pirates have no direction or strategy. And sitting from here, I gotta wonder what the Doggs are doing...
P.S. But while I can trash the Doggs' management, I must admit that the Doggs have the Shorts' number when it comes to trades. Chad Tracy, Cesar Izturis and a draft pick (Andrew McCutchen) for Willy Taveras and Lastings Milledge. Then Derek Lowe for Jeremy Hermida. Got me on both counts...
Monday, August 13, 2007
Last Week's FAABathon
I keep seeking analysis of the trade deadline FAAB this past Friday but didn't want to necessarily post myself since I successfully secured a bulk of the talent available. But given no one else has stepped up, here it goes:
(1) David's Goliaths bid $42 for Mark Teixeira; waive Olmedo Saenz
other bids: Del Lords - $32 (Wilson Betemit), Tarantulas - $30 (Ryan Freel)
I was struck by two things... the Prowlers didn't bid and the Lords would have had him for $32 if not for the Goliaths. I guess everyone assumed a slew of $40+ bids.
(2) Slackers bid $24 for Tadahito Iguchi; waive Brendan Ryan
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Scott Speizio), TC Homers - $24 (Omar Quintanilla), David's Goliaths - $16 (Tony Graffanino), Raul's Doggy Dogs - $8 (Wes Helms), Jim Shorts - $7 (Chad Tracy)
I assumed I'd get him at $24. He's not necessarily a keeper but a very productive major leaguer who I'd think several owners would seek in trade.
(3) Slackers bid $24 for Octavio Dotel; waive Dan Wheeler
other bids: Raul's Doggy Dogs - $15 (John Grabow), TC Homers - $8 (Joe Smith)
Before his injury, I had delusions of him becoming the deadline FAAB closer like 2006 $24 pick ups Guardado, Cordero and Wickman. I still think he has a decent shot of being the 2008 closer somewhere and being effective in September.
(4) Slackers bid $24 for Ty Wigginton; waive Jared Saltalamacchia
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Mark Sweeney), Prowlers - $24 (Chris Burke), Jim Shorts - $24 (Damion Easley), Tarantulas - $12 (Ryan Langerhans), Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Chris Iannetta)
Another simple $24 bid for the Slackers, Wigginton clearly was interesting to a lot of owners. Ironically, the team that traded for him didn't even bid on him.
(5) David's Goliaths bid $16 for Luis Castillo; waive Adam Kennedy
other bids: Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Eric Bruntlett), Tarantulas - $11 (Jeff Conine)
I thought for sure the Jim Shorts would bid $24 for Castillo. Silly for him to think no one else was bidding $24 for Wigginton and passing on a productive 2B he could have certainly acquired. I look forward to his "comment" here.
(6) Jim Shorts bid $11 for Rob Mackowiak; waive Jose Cruz
other bid: Wright Edition - $6 (Hiram Bocachica)
Yahn
(7) Raul's Doggy Dogs bid $7 for Delwyn Young; waive Joe Borchard
other bids: Wright Edition - $6 (Cory Sullivan), Tubagoos - $6 (So Taguchi), Jim Shorts - $6 (Cesar Izturis)
One of my alternative strategies was going to bid for Young but I just couldn't see him cracking the Dodger outfield this year or next. Although given their offensive woes maybe he gets a shot. I told Erik prior to FAAB that Raul would most certainly be in the bidding here as he's a dodger fan... I mean a Red Sox fan... I mean a Yankee fan. Hey Raul, who do you root for anyway?
(8) Jim Shorts bid $7 for Joel Pineiro; waive Brandon Lyon
Jim was trying to talk me into Lyon's closer in waiting status last week. I guess he was trying to pull a fast one on me. Maybe I will claim him this week. Given Pineiro's bad WHIP in Seattle, I can't see him succeeding much. That said, maybe he will present a new look to NL batters. His first start (7IP no runs) suggests maybe he works in spots.
(9) Del Lords bid $5 for Bobby Livingstone; waive Kyle Davies
I scouted Livingstone a few weeks back but just couldn't bring myself to buy a starter in Cincinnati.
(10) Prowlers bid $5 for Scott Proctor; waive Oscar Villarreal
other bid: Jim Shorts - $5 (Shawn Chacon)
Here's a second attempted waiver by Jim Short marketed to me as a cheap saves long shot. And Jim wonders why I question his credibility in scouting deals between us. Proctor is a productive $5 pick up to save cap space if nothing else.
(11) Jim Shorts bid $5 for Tim Redding; waive Livan Hernandez
Livan has had his troubles but he seems at least equally spot-startable as Redding. At least Livan has pitched well in his career and has a good team behind him. Maybe Jim just grew tired of the temptation of starting Livan.
(12) Lou Evil Sluggers bid $5 for Chris Coste; waive Mike Lieberthal
Who is Chris Coste? Probably just the reason the Sluggers are successful year after year while the Slackers are has beens.
(13) Tarantulas claim Jo-Jo Reyes; waive John Van Benschoten
other claim: Lou Evil Sluggers (Paul Estrada)
I liked Jo-Jo but didn't think he was worth owning at $10 for 2008. The Tarantulas continue bargain hunting for staring pitching.
(14) Slackers claim Kevin Correia; waive Jason Hirsch
other claims: Prowlers (empty spot), Jim Shorts (Jon Lieber), David's Goliaths (Josh Hancock)
I actually like Correia as a closer for the Giants in 2008 but he needs to have a big September.
(1) David's Goliaths bid $42 for Mark Teixeira; waive Olmedo Saenz
other bids: Del Lords - $32 (Wilson Betemit), Tarantulas - $30 (Ryan Freel)
I was struck by two things... the Prowlers didn't bid and the Lords would have had him for $32 if not for the Goliaths. I guess everyone assumed a slew of $40+ bids.
(2) Slackers bid $24 for Tadahito Iguchi; waive Brendan Ryan
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Scott Speizio), TC Homers - $24 (Omar Quintanilla), David's Goliaths - $16 (Tony Graffanino), Raul's Doggy Dogs - $8 (Wes Helms), Jim Shorts - $7 (Chad Tracy)
I assumed I'd get him at $24. He's not necessarily a keeper but a very productive major leaguer who I'd think several owners would seek in trade.
(3) Slackers bid $24 for Octavio Dotel; waive Dan Wheeler
other bids: Raul's Doggy Dogs - $15 (John Grabow), TC Homers - $8 (Joe Smith)
Before his injury, I had delusions of him becoming the deadline FAAB closer like 2006 $24 pick ups Guardado, Cordero and Wickman. I still think he has a decent shot of being the 2008 closer somewhere and being effective in September.
(4) Slackers bid $24 for Ty Wigginton; waive Jared Saltalamacchia
other bids: Wright Edition - $24 (Mark Sweeney), Prowlers - $24 (Chris Burke), Jim Shorts - $24 (Damion Easley), Tarantulas - $12 (Ryan Langerhans), Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Chris Iannetta)
Another simple $24 bid for the Slackers, Wigginton clearly was interesting to a lot of owners. Ironically, the team that traded for him didn't even bid on him.
(5) David's Goliaths bid $16 for Luis Castillo; waive Adam Kennedy
other bids: Lou Evil Sluggers - $12 (Eric Bruntlett), Tarantulas - $11 (Jeff Conine)
I thought for sure the Jim Shorts would bid $24 for Castillo. Silly for him to think no one else was bidding $24 for Wigginton and passing on a productive 2B he could have certainly acquired. I look forward to his "comment" here.
(6) Jim Shorts bid $11 for Rob Mackowiak; waive Jose Cruz
other bid: Wright Edition - $6 (Hiram Bocachica)
Yahn
(7) Raul's Doggy Dogs bid $7 for Delwyn Young; waive Joe Borchard
other bids: Wright Edition - $6 (Cory Sullivan), Tubagoos - $6 (So Taguchi), Jim Shorts - $6 (Cesar Izturis)
One of my alternative strategies was going to bid for Young but I just couldn't see him cracking the Dodger outfield this year or next. Although given their offensive woes maybe he gets a shot. I told Erik prior to FAAB that Raul would most certainly be in the bidding here as he's a dodger fan... I mean a Red Sox fan... I mean a Yankee fan. Hey Raul, who do you root for anyway?
(8) Jim Shorts bid $7 for Joel Pineiro; waive Brandon Lyon
Jim was trying to talk me into Lyon's closer in waiting status last week. I guess he was trying to pull a fast one on me. Maybe I will claim him this week. Given Pineiro's bad WHIP in Seattle, I can't see him succeeding much. That said, maybe he will present a new look to NL batters. His first start (7IP no runs) suggests maybe he works in spots.
(9) Del Lords bid $5 for Bobby Livingstone; waive Kyle Davies
I scouted Livingstone a few weeks back but just couldn't bring myself to buy a starter in Cincinnati.
(10) Prowlers bid $5 for Scott Proctor; waive Oscar Villarreal
other bid: Jim Shorts - $5 (Shawn Chacon)
Here's a second attempted waiver by Jim Short marketed to me as a cheap saves long shot. And Jim wonders why I question his credibility in scouting deals between us. Proctor is a productive $5 pick up to save cap space if nothing else.
(11) Jim Shorts bid $5 for Tim Redding; waive Livan Hernandez
Livan has had his troubles but he seems at least equally spot-startable as Redding. At least Livan has pitched well in his career and has a good team behind him. Maybe Jim just grew tired of the temptation of starting Livan.
(12) Lou Evil Sluggers bid $5 for Chris Coste; waive Mike Lieberthal
Who is Chris Coste? Probably just the reason the Sluggers are successful year after year while the Slackers are has beens.
(13) Tarantulas claim Jo-Jo Reyes; waive John Van Benschoten
other claim: Lou Evil Sluggers (Paul Estrada)
I liked Jo-Jo but didn't think he was worth owning at $10 for 2008. The Tarantulas continue bargain hunting for staring pitching.
(14) Slackers claim Kevin Correia; waive Jason Hirsch
other claims: Prowlers (empty spot), Jim Shorts (Jon Lieber), David's Goliaths (Josh Hancock)
I actually like Correia as a closer for the Giants in 2008 but he needs to have a big September.
Who needs FAAB or trades?
It's amazing that the Homers have been able to lead the entire way this year (so far), and have had no major contributions from any FAAB or trade pickup, except in the Saves category (where they only have 4 points currently). Here's how their 2007 major contributors were acquired (I included the auction rounds just out of curiosity):
2004 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
none
2005 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
Juan Pierre ($34 in auction, used in Wickman trade)
Fred Lewis ($2 in reserve draft, used in Wickman trade)
2006 Auction
Prince Fielder - $22 (brought up in the 3rd round of bidding)
Bronson Arroyo - $11 (3rd)
Chris Young - $21 (4th)
Garrett Atkins - $20 (4th)
Nomar Garciaparra - $15 (4th)
Ian Snell - $4 (8th)
Corey Hart - $15 (8th)
Miguel Olivo - $2 (10th)
Dan Uggla - $5 (10th)
Shane Victorino - $3 (14th)
2006 Reserve Draft
Russell Martin
Jonathan Broxton (eventually used in Valverde/Dempster trade)
2006 FAAB/Waivers
none
2006 Trades
Bob Wickman
2007 Auction
Ben Sheets - $33 (1st)
Jason Bay - $28 (2nd)
Rafael Soriano - $12 (5th)
Ryan Theriot - $6 (9th)
Matt Diaz - $6 (12th)
2007 Reserve Draft
none
2007 FAAB/Waivers
Milton Bradley (contribution TBD)
2007 Trades
Jose Valverde (contribution TBD)
Ryan Dempster (contribution TBD)
This lays to waste the "studs and duds" rebuilding method. That was one heckuva draft last year (2006).
2004 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
none
2005 Auction/Reserve Draft/FAAB/Waivers/Trades
Juan Pierre ($34 in auction, used in Wickman trade)
Fred Lewis ($2 in reserve draft, used in Wickman trade)
2006 Auction
Prince Fielder - $22 (brought up in the 3rd round of bidding)
Bronson Arroyo - $11 (3rd)
Chris Young - $21 (4th)
Garrett Atkins - $20 (4th)
Nomar Garciaparra - $15 (4th)
Ian Snell - $4 (8th)
Corey Hart - $15 (8th)
Miguel Olivo - $2 (10th)
Dan Uggla - $5 (10th)
Shane Victorino - $3 (14th)
2006 Reserve Draft
Russell Martin
Jonathan Broxton (eventually used in Valverde/Dempster trade)
2006 FAAB/Waivers
none
2006 Trades
Bob Wickman
2007 Auction
Ben Sheets - $33 (1st)
Jason Bay - $28 (2nd)
Rafael Soriano - $12 (5th)
Ryan Theriot - $6 (9th)
Matt Diaz - $6 (12th)
2007 Reserve Draft
none
2007 FAAB/Waivers
Milton Bradley (contribution TBD)
2007 Trades
Jose Valverde (contribution TBD)
Ryan Dempster (contribution TBD)
This lays to waste the "studs and duds" rebuilding method. That was one heckuva draft last year (2006).
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Maybe Chris knew what he was doing after all...
As Doug pointed out in a comment, Ian Stewart got called up....and Rotoworld yesterday reported that Dempster may not be the exclusive closer...
So Chris' eagerness/rush to do the deal before the deadline* makes sense now...
So Chris' eagerness/rush to do the deal before the deadline* makes sense now...
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Jim is right
I wasn't pleased by my own trade. I didn't like trading at cost rather than value. But I offered Valverde and Dempster to all contenders, and got no offers other than Doug. Plus, my thinking was that Valverde has never had a full year this good, and Dempster is imploding.
I also agree with Patrick -- any trade is a good trade in our league.
Finally, I disagree that Doug is now a lock to win -- Dave could catch him if he'd ever spend on FAAB, and make a trade.
--Chris
I also agree with Patrick -- any trade is a good trade in our league.
Finally, I disagree that Doug is now a lock to win -- Dave could catch him if he'd ever spend on FAAB, and make a trade.
--Chris
Some momentous events...and the Trade
It's been a while since I had time to post...and several big events have finally happened...Bonds hit 756 (and 757); A-Rod hit 500; Greg got married...and the Homers made the trade they needed to make to win the league.
My assessment of the Roblisserie race was that the Homers were in the driver's seat all along - even as some teams flirted with catching them in the standings. When you looked at the standings and the Homers' position in categories, you saw lots of upside potential, especially if the Homers could pick up a closer. For a while I was worried that Jonathan Broxton would be that guy, given Saito's shoulder, and he still could be the Dodgers' closer any day...but Broxton is no longer a Homer, which brings us back to the Big One!
The Del Lords dropped their shorts and traded not only one closer, but two closers to the Homers. The official trade was as follows:
Del Lords trade Jose Valverde and Ryan Dempster
to the TC Homers for Jonathan Broxton, Ian Stewart, Michael Wuertz, and the Homers 15th round pick in 2008.
Before I get into the trade analysis (and invite you to comment), I must also point out that there is some controversy with this trade, with regard to the timing. The trade itself was executed early Monday evening (ET) and it has been announced as effective as of 8/6/07. The Slackers have formally protested the timing of this trade, citing the rules which do indicate that the transaction deadline is noon, ET. No word yet from the commissioner's office on the formal protest - my guess is that Erik stood up and put his hands in his pockets and said nothing. But I think he did issue a statement, acknowledging that despite the controversy with this trade, the fact that the Homers fleeced the Lords is notable and remarkable.
I am personally surprised that Erik bent the rules here, even if it's in the spirit of the game, since no games were happening until that evening and the fact that our website technically allows transactions up to an hour before the first game. But unlike previous rule controversies, this one is in black and white - namely the League Constitution that was produced by none other than Chris himself (actually by Chris' former assistant who probably quit the Charlotte Sports Felon firm due to bullsh*t duties assigned to her such as typing up the rules from a book on chicken roasters.)
Anyway, back to the irony of an attorney ignoring the Constitution - I guess rogue attorneys in Carolina are the norm. Anyway, I'm surprised that Erik let this one slide - in fact, I think this is the first time he and I have been on opposite viewpoints on a rules decision/interpretation - I thought we got away from loosey/goosey commish decisions once the Del Lords were dethroned.
Anyway, back to the trade. There have been several emails about this and I invite the owners to revisit the comments here on the blog - to generate some more traffic and dialogue here. All in all, it wasn't a horrible trade for the Lords despite my needling...but I think Chris could have done better.
True, the closers were funny money to Chris but to Doug, they were gold. And that's the problem I have with the deal from the Del Lords' perspective. He sold based on his cost rather than value to the customer. Also, I didn't understand the rush to do a deal by the deadline* (asterisk similar to Bonds' HR record; actually if the Homers win the title by a save or two that occurs this week, do we put an asterisk next to their name in our record books?)
As I was saying, time was on Chris' side. Doug was desperate to do a deal - so why didn't Chris use time to his advantage? I was even trying to pull together a competing offer...so Chris could have used the Toland "I'm talking to another owner" technique to extract more from Doug. (That will be another post - analyzing owners' trading styles, etc.)
The trade itself wasn't horrible, as I said. You could argue that Broxton for a closer is a fair deal and that Stewart for another closer is ok. (Although Bruce would have been a better pickup than Stewart in my mind.) But again, if you're going to hand an owner the keys to the title, make them pay for it. (Unless it's my team in a future year...)
Finally, what's with the dangling 15th round draft pick? Why did Chris care about picking up the very last pick in the draft? Or was that Doug's subtle way of putting an exclamation point on his bounty - since he isn't going to need the 15th pick anyway since he'll be protecting Jay Bruce.
My assessment of the Roblisserie race was that the Homers were in the driver's seat all along - even as some teams flirted with catching them in the standings. When you looked at the standings and the Homers' position in categories, you saw lots of upside potential, especially if the Homers could pick up a closer. For a while I was worried that Jonathan Broxton would be that guy, given Saito's shoulder, and he still could be the Dodgers' closer any day...but Broxton is no longer a Homer, which brings us back to the Big One!
The Del Lords dropped their shorts and traded not only one closer, but two closers to the Homers. The official trade was as follows:
Del Lords trade Jose Valverde and Ryan Dempster
to the TC Homers for Jonathan Broxton, Ian Stewart, Michael Wuertz, and the Homers 15th round pick in 2008.
Before I get into the trade analysis (and invite you to comment), I must also point out that there is some controversy with this trade, with regard to the timing. The trade itself was executed early Monday evening (ET) and it has been announced as effective as of 8/6/07. The Slackers have formally protested the timing of this trade, citing the rules which do indicate that the transaction deadline is noon, ET. No word yet from the commissioner's office on the formal protest - my guess is that Erik stood up and put his hands in his pockets and said nothing. But I think he did issue a statement, acknowledging that despite the controversy with this trade, the fact that the Homers fleeced the Lords is notable and remarkable.
I am personally surprised that Erik bent the rules here, even if it's in the spirit of the game, since no games were happening until that evening and the fact that our website technically allows transactions up to an hour before the first game. But unlike previous rule controversies, this one is in black and white - namely the League Constitution that was produced by none other than Chris himself (actually by Chris' former assistant who probably quit the Charlotte Sports Felon firm due to bullsh*t duties assigned to her such as typing up the rules from a book on chicken roasters.)
Anyway, back to the irony of an attorney ignoring the Constitution - I guess rogue attorneys in Carolina are the norm. Anyway, I'm surprised that Erik let this one slide - in fact, I think this is the first time he and I have been on opposite viewpoints on a rules decision/interpretation - I thought we got away from loosey/goosey commish decisions once the Del Lords were dethroned.
Anyway, back to the trade. There have been several emails about this and I invite the owners to revisit the comments here on the blog - to generate some more traffic and dialogue here. All in all, it wasn't a horrible trade for the Lords despite my needling...but I think Chris could have done better.
True, the closers were funny money to Chris but to Doug, they were gold. And that's the problem I have with the deal from the Del Lords' perspective. He sold based on his cost rather than value to the customer. Also, I didn't understand the rush to do a deal by the deadline* (asterisk similar to Bonds' HR record; actually if the Homers win the title by a save or two that occurs this week, do we put an asterisk next to their name in our record books?)
As I was saying, time was on Chris' side. Doug was desperate to do a deal - so why didn't Chris use time to his advantage? I was even trying to pull together a competing offer...so Chris could have used the Toland "I'm talking to another owner" technique to extract more from Doug. (That will be another post - analyzing owners' trading styles, etc.)
The trade itself wasn't horrible, as I said. You could argue that Broxton for a closer is a fair deal and that Stewart for another closer is ok. (Although Bruce would have been a better pickup than Stewart in my mind.) But again, if you're going to hand an owner the keys to the title, make them pay for it. (Unless it's my team in a future year...)
Finally, what's with the dangling 15th round draft pick? Why did Chris care about picking up the very last pick in the draft? Or was that Doug's subtle way of putting an exclamation point on his bounty - since he isn't going to need the 15th pick anyway since he'll be protecting Jay Bruce.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Prowlers in trouble?
See this post from Perez Hilton's blog about how a certain Prowlers' starter is spending his free time...if we see another 2nd half decline, we may know why
Anyone think that Brad Penny and Greg (our newly married Tubagoo owner - congrats Greg!) resemble each other?
Anyone think that Brad Penny and Greg (our newly married Tubagoo owner - congrats Greg!) resemble each other?
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Back to reality
Believe it or not, I hadn't looked at anything baseball related since Thursday evening. I pretty much shut down once I saw Derek Lowe's box score versus the Mets and we were throwing David's birthday party yesterday (on Friday) and we had relatives coming in town Friday night.
So this afternoon, I finally sneaked a peek at the website and saw that the Shorts' slide had continued...now tied for 3rd with the defending champion, Lou Evil Sluggers (Erik, is there something I can link to?) and only half a point ahead of the surging Prowlers.
Then I looked at news for my players and I see that Takashi Saito's shoulder is bothering him again, that Dmitri Young's heel is flaring up and that Dontrelle Willis' pitching coach is looking at old tapes from 2003 to figure out why he's been so bad. I knew this was inevitable; that the Shorts' run had been too hot for too long and now it's time to see how far we fall before bottoming out...
By the way, congrats to Albert's daughter, Amanda, who finished 2nd today in her first competition (figure skating) at a higher level...I don't quite understand figure skating but Albert can tell you more than you (or he) would ever want to know.
So this afternoon, I finally sneaked a peek at the website and saw that the Shorts' slide had continued...now tied for 3rd with the defending champion, Lou Evil Sluggers (Erik, is there something I can link to?) and only half a point ahead of the surging Prowlers.
Then I looked at news for my players and I see that Takashi Saito's shoulder is bothering him again, that Dmitri Young's heel is flaring up and that Dontrelle Willis' pitching coach is looking at old tapes from 2003 to figure out why he's been so bad. I knew this was inevitable; that the Shorts' run had been too hot for too long and now it's time to see how far we fall before bottoming out...
By the way, congrats to Albert's daughter, Amanda, who finished 2nd today in her first competition (figure skating) at a higher level...I don't quite understand figure skating but Albert can tell you more than you (or he) would ever want to know.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Dontrelle Willis, thy name is FAAB-Bait
Tonight's line...
3 IP 11 H 6 ER 2 BB 4 K
For the season...
7-9 record
5.13 ERA
1.65 WHIP
Time to examine the free agent pitchers...Shane Youman? Kyle Kendrick? Any of them have to be better than Dontrelle, right?
3 IP 11 H 6 ER 2 BB 4 K
For the season...
7-9 record
5.13 ERA
1.65 WHIP
Time to examine the free agent pitchers...Shane Youman? Kyle Kendrick? Any of them have to be better than Dontrelle, right?
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
18-Player Trade
So the big trade of the year happened last Monday...I haven't had a chance to break it down but my initial reaction was "Wow, big trade...but on the surface, seems like a good trade for both teams." Just as a reminder, here was the trade:
Slackers (10th place at time of trade, 46.5 points) traded:
Greg Maddux, $12/1st year
Tom Glavine, $8/2nd year
Heath Bell, $10/1st year
Aaron Heilman, $5/final year
Scott Rolen, $27/1st year
JJ Hardy, $7/final year
Andruw Jones, $36/first year
Omar Vizquel, $13/first year
Bengie Molina, $10/first year
to the Prowlers (5th place, 76.0 points) for:
Chad Billingsley, $8/1st year
Chuck James, $2/2nd year
Scott Linebrink, $8/1st year
Randy Messenger, $2/1st year
Rod Barajas, $5/1st year
Albert Callaspo, $5/2nd year
Scott Thorman, $5/2nd year
Joe Koshansky, $10/1st year (rookie status)
Andy Laroche, $4/1st year
I thought the Slackers did well on the pitching front, for the future, and even for the rest of this season. Maddux and Glavine are more proven, but Billingsley has the most upside and James is still of value, despite his WHIP. Also, Billingsley and James are much better on the strikeout front. With the Giants bullpen you never know about Messenger as a potential closer and Linebrink could get traded into a closer role sometime.
On the hitting front, it all comes down to Laroche and Koshansky. The Slackers gave up a fair amount of hitting (partially to offset the pitching it gained) and picked up a couple of guys (Barajas, Callaspo) that I wouldn't have valued much. As far as catchers go, I think I'd almost rather have Molina than Barajas for next year. But as I said, if Laroche ends up with the 3b job by next spring and if Koshansky could land into a 1b job, then the overall trade was probably worthwhile for the Slackers despite how uneven it looks now. I was high on Thorman as a keeper when I saw the trade, but didn't realize he's hitting .217 and even sat tonight versus a righty. At least the Slackers have Salty though...
Slackers (10th place at time of trade, 46.5 points) traded:
Greg Maddux, $12/1st year
Tom Glavine, $8/2nd year
Heath Bell, $10/1st year
Aaron Heilman, $5/final year
Scott Rolen, $27/1st year
JJ Hardy, $7/final year
Andruw Jones, $36/first year
Omar Vizquel, $13/first year
Bengie Molina, $10/first year
to the Prowlers (5th place, 76.0 points) for:
Chad Billingsley, $8/1st year
Chuck James, $2/2nd year
Scott Linebrink, $8/1st year
Randy Messenger, $2/1st year
Rod Barajas, $5/1st year
Albert Callaspo, $5/2nd year
Scott Thorman, $5/2nd year
Joe Koshansky, $10/1st year (rookie status)
Andy Laroche, $4/1st year
I thought the Slackers did well on the pitching front, for the future, and even for the rest of this season. Maddux and Glavine are more proven, but Billingsley has the most upside and James is still of value, despite his WHIP. Also, Billingsley and James are much better on the strikeout front. With the Giants bullpen you never know about Messenger as a potential closer and Linebrink could get traded into a closer role sometime.
On the hitting front, it all comes down to Laroche and Koshansky. The Slackers gave up a fair amount of hitting (partially to offset the pitching it gained) and picked up a couple of guys (Barajas, Callaspo) that I wouldn't have valued much. As far as catchers go, I think I'd almost rather have Molina than Barajas for next year. But as I said, if Laroche ends up with the 3b job by next spring and if Koshansky could land into a 1b job, then the overall trade was probably worthwhile for the Slackers despite how uneven it looks now. I was high on Thorman as a keeper when I saw the trade, but didn't realize he's hitting .217 and even sat tonight versus a righty. At least the Slackers have Salty though...
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