Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Scenario for Homers Win

Now looking at the Homers, there are still several areas where the Homers could make up points in the standings, but time is running out...

As of 9:40 pm ET (Wed. 9/26/07), the Homers are also down 93.5-87. Of course, the Goliaths could lose points as described in the Sluggers scenario, but the Homers have enough areas to score that a winning scenario doesn't necessarily rely on the Goliaths to falter.

Homers could pass Sluggers in BA (.2753 - .2757)
Homers could pass Doggs, Lords in SB (140-143-143) - although the trends may not favor this
Homers could pass the Shorts, Sluggers, Prowlers in K (1015-1021-1025-1035) - remember the Prowlers have the least amount of starts remaining and the Homers have the most...

A key matchup is Homers vs. Slackers in ERA and WHIP; the Homers are currently down 4.022-4.019 in ERA and 1.327-1.324 in WHIP - and the Slackers still have Jamie Moyer, Chuck James, Kevin Correia and Chad Billingsley left to pitch

Finally if the Homers could tie/pass the Doggs and Guys in wins (68-70-71), then it has 2 points more of upside - leaving a total upside of 10 points gained or 97 total.

Stay tuned - this is going to be a good one...

1 comment:

erikl415 said...

I think I like the Homers situation better - they control their own destiny, as announcers like to say.

Also, one of my Sunday starters (Lilly) probably won't make that start, assuming the Cubs have clinched by then.

Couldn't we potentially see as many as three or more (!) extra games? If NL East and NL West are both tied, and all teams have the same record, then there would have to be an extra game for each division winner, then the two division losers would have to play for the wildcard.

Plus, we could potentially have a three-way tie for the NL West?